Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://idr.l1.nitk.ac.in/jspui/handle/123456789/15216
Title: Bivariate Drought Characterization of Two Contrasting Climatic Regions in India Using Copula
Authors: Sajeev A.
Deb Barma S.
Mahesha A.
Shiau J.-T.
Issue Date: 2021
Citation: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering , Vol. 147 , 3 , p. -
Abstract: This study aims to construct the multiple time-scale joint distributions of drought duration and severity using two-dimensional copulas and compare the drought characteristics in India's two contrasting climate regions: the arid Rajasthan and humid, tropical Kerala. The drought occurrences were defined by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) with a threshold below -0.8 at time scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months for 1900-2016. Significant correlations were noted between the drought severity and drought duration in both regions. The Clayton copula gave a better fit than other copulas for modeling the dependence among the observed drought duration and severity. The results indicate that the probability of short-term droughts (SPI-3 and SPI-6) is more significant than those of long-term droughts (SPI-12 and SPI-24) for an identical drought event in both regions. Also, the probability of severe drought events with greater duration and severity for long-term droughts (SPI-12 and SPI-24) is higher in Kerala than that in western Rajasthan. For all the time-scale SPIs, the conditional probability of drought severity for a given duration exceeding a threshold showed an increasing trend in both regions. Furthermore, the conditional probability of the drought duration given the severity for short-term droughts is greater than that of the long-term droughts for the same drought event. For short-term droughts, the conditional return period of an identical drought event is lower in Kerala than in western Rajasthan. In contrast, the conditional return period of long-term droughts is lower in western Rajasthan. Additionally, copula-based nonexceedance conditional distributions for the major crops were established based on rainfall. © 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
URI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0001536
http://idr.nitk.ac.in/jspui/handle/123456789/15216
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